3 Predictions and a Score for Michigan-Western Michigan

Michigan opens the Kyle Whittingham era tomorrow night under the lights, and the first game of a new staff is always part statement, part baseline.

Western Michigan isn't a nameless Week 1 opponent. They're the defending MAC champion, and Broc Lowry and Jalen Buckley are good enough to make a sloppy night linger.

None of that changes what this should look like if Michigan plays the way camp suggested. Here are three numbers I'm holding them to.

1. Underwood throws for 250 and three touchdowns

Year 2 is the whole point of this offense.

Underwood put up 2,428 yards, 11 touchdowns and nine interceptions as a true freshman, and spent the second half of last season looking like a kid who needed better structure around him. He has it now. Jason Beck's system is built to let him play faster, and Whittingham has spent two weeks saying it's the grasp of the offense that's changed.

Western Michigan isn't Oklahoma. So if Underwood is actually further along, this is the night it shows up on a stat sheet instead of in quotes.

250 and three isn't a wild ask against a MAC defense in the Big House. It's the floor for a quarterback who's supposed to take a leap. If he finishes under it, Oklahoma week starts with a different kind of conversation.

2. The defense holds Western Michigan under 10

This is the unit that's supposed to carry the team while the offense finds itself.

John Henry Daley is a full go after the Achilles. Dominic Nichols is expected to play. Rod Moore will take a real snap count even if he isn't all the way back to 2023.

Jay Hill's defense asks the front to win and the linebackers to process. Western Michigan's best path is the run game that carried them through the second half of last season. If Michigan wins first down, Lowry becomes a dropback quarterback in a building that's way too big for that plan.

Ten or under isn't about whether Western Michigan can score. It's about whether this front lets a MAC champion dictate the night. A 17 or 21-point outing from the Broncos would say more about Michigan's tackling and disguise than about Western Michigan's talent.

3. Michigan runs for 175

That number isn't about style points. It's about whether this actually looks like a Whittingham team on first viewing.

Jordan Marshall is the lead back, with Savion Hiter behind him. Andrew Babalola is out, so Blake Frazier and the rest of the line have to hold up without him.

175 is a modest line for a home opener against Western Michigan. Clear it and the play-action shots open up, Underwood stays clean, and the fourth quarter becomes a clock game. Fall short and the night gets tighter than it needs to be and Oklahoma week starts with questions about the interior.

The pick

Michigan 45, Western Michigan 6.

Underwood hits the line. The defense keeps the Broncos on that number or under it. The run game does enough that nobody leaves the Big House talking about how close it felt.

Oklahoma is already next. Tomorrow is supposed to look like a team that knows who it is.