Can Michigan Actually Beat Oklahoma?

Last September, Michigan walked into Norman with a five-star freshman and walked out with a 24-13 loss and a lot of questions. Saturday, Oklahoma comes to Ann Arbor.

Noon kickoff, FOX, as Oklahoma announced back in the spring. Vegas has the Sooners as 6.5-point road favorites, which is a swing of nine points from the offseason line, when Michigan was laying 2.5.

That's what one week of football did.

The quarterback gap is the whole game

There's no way to beat around this. John Mateer is the better quarterback right now, and it isn't close.

Go back to Norman. Mateer threw for 270 yards, ran for another 74, and accounted for all three Oklahoma touchdowns himself, with two on the ground, one through the air. Bryce Underwood, a true freshman playing his second career game in one of the loudest buildings in the country, went 9-of-24 for 142 yards with no touchdowns.

He didn't turn it over. He also never made Oklahoma pay for anything.

A year later, the gap hasn't closed the way anyone hoped it would. Mateer opened 2026 by going 11-of-17 for 225 yards and three touchdowns in a 51-0 shutout of UTEP, and he was on the bench by the third quarter. Underwood went 12-of-22 for 170 with a touchdown and a pick against Western Michigan, added 47 yards and a score on the ground, and needed a 47-yard Hail Mary to J.J. Buchanan to win the game.

He knows it, too. "Got to do better," he told reporters afterward. Kyle Whittingham used the words "not outstanding."

Here's the part that matters, though: Michigan opened that game with an 11-play, 75-yard touchdown drive. The offense isn't hopeless.

Michigan's defense is the reason this is a game at all

If the Wolverines win Saturday, the defense will win it for them.

John Henry Daley was a full go for the opener but wasn't the "star of the show" like we thought he might be. Rod Moore is back, even if you didn't hear his name Saturday night. The front of Nichols, Bracy, Hill, and Berry are deeper than it was a year ago, which I laid out in the projected defensive depth chart coming out of camp.

The problem is that Michigan's defense held Western Michigan to 12 points and it still nearly wasn't enough. Playing well isn't the bar Saturday. Playing well for 60 minutes against an offense that scored on its first eight possessions in Week 1 will be.

Brent Venables' defense will be a problem

Oklahoma held UTEP to 198 total yards. That's a MAC-level opponent (lol), so discount it however you want, but Venables has been building this thing for four years and it's the reason the Sooners are favored on the road.

Wein and Stone up front, Jackson and Lewis at linebacker, Heinecke, Bowen, and Guillory in the back end. That group is going to sit on Michigan's early-down runs and dare Underwood to beat them on third-and-6.

Which is exactly what Oklahoma did last year in Norman. Justice Haynes got 125 yards, yet Michigan still only managed 288 total, because once the run stopped moving the chains, there was no second option.

If Jason Beck hasn't built an offense over the last twelve months, Saturday looks a lot like September 6, 2025.

How Michigan actually wins this

Stay on schedule. Michigan cannot play from behind the sticks against this front. Second-and-9 is a Venables win before the ball is snapped.

Make Mateer play from the pocket. His 74 rushing yards in Norman weren't scrambles for survival... they were designed, and they were the difference. Michigan's edges have to keep him between the tackles even when that means giving up a completion underneath. Michigan should take notes and let Underwood do the same.

The verdict

I've talked myself into this game about four times this week and out of it four times... and its only Monday

Oklahoma is the better team right now. Better quarterback, better defensive front, better week one, and they're getting Tory Blaylock back healthy after a hamstring cost him most of fall camp. The 5.5 points feels about right, maybe even light.

But Michigan is at home, this defense is legitimately good, and Bryce Underwood is a fundamentally different player than the freshman who got rattled in Norman, even if he didn't look like it last Saturday.

I think Michigan keeps it close down to the wire and wins it on the last drive. Michigan 24, Oklahoma 20.

Go Blue